Researcher says AI is already speeding up AI research
A capability researcher says AI is speeding up AI research faster, and sooner, than he predicted.
This is on your desk because if it holds up, the timeline for AI becoming dramatically more capable just got shorter, which changes how urgently you should be thinking about AI in your own plans and work.
Ryan Greenblatt, a researcher who tracks how capable AI systems are becoming, says a new report shows AI is already speeding up AI research itself by a bigger margin than he expected. The idea, sometimes called RSI, meaning AI being used to make AI research go faster, is that once AI gets good enough to help build better AI, progress can snowball. The report says AI is currently making overall AI progress happen about 2 times faster than it otherwise would. In the widely discussed "AI 2027" forecast, that level of speedup was not expected to arrive until around March 2027. It appears to be happening well ahead of that schedule.
Greenblatt did his own math on top of the report and estimates the speedup specifically for AI software research, the work of designing better algorithms and training data, is closer to 4.5 times, not 2 times. He explains why the software specific number has to be bigger. First, he notes that not all of AI progress comes from better software, since some comes from simply using more computing power, so a 2 times overall speedup needs a roughly 3 times speedup in software progress alone. Second, there is a diminishing returns effect: as software improves, it takes more and more AI help to keep up the same pace of further improvement. He had previously estimated that, with everything else held equal, software research slows down by about 2 times for every extra year's worth of progress already banked. Based on the new report, he estimates we have already pulled forward somewhere between 0.35 and 1.0 years of extra software progress into today's AI models, averaging to about 0.6 years. Doing the math, 3 times 2 to the power of 0.6 comes out to about 4.5, which is where his 4.5 times figure comes from.
Greenblatt is candid about the limits of what he knows. He has not seen the full, unredacted version of the report, only the public one, and he says large parts of the evidence behind it were blacked out. He writes: "I was seriously wrong about RSI speed up; I previously expected much less in 2026 (around 1.15x-1.3x)." Because of the redactions, he says any conclusion beyond the plain fact that progress sped up 2 times on the standard tests everyone uses depends heavily on trusting the report's authors, something he says he personally does.
His headline conclusion, in his own words: "This report on AI R&D automation (RSI) is a big update towards ASI within 1-2 years." That is a notably fast timeline from someone who has spent his career measuring, not hyping, AI capability, and who says this particular piece of evidence changed his mind faster than he expected.
This report on AI R&D automation (RSI) is a big update towards ASI within 1-2 years.via Ryan Greenblatt on X →